The rapid rebel advances in Syria seemed to come out of nowhere, stunning the Assad regime and many international observers.
The offensive began in late November, with rebels capturing strategic towns and military bases in northwestern Syria. Yet within days, Assad’s opponents achieved significant territorial gains, placing the regime in mortal danger.
In many cases advancing rebel forces encountered minimal resistance from government troops, with Assad’s army showing reluctance to engage the enemy.
Subsequent days saw the fall of Hama and advances towards Homs, with thousands of civilians fleeing the conflict zones and Assad’s forces opting for a hasty retreat. But why did the rebel offensive in Syria take so many people by surprise?
In recent years, Syria’s civil war had largely subsided into a stalemate, with Assad’s government regaining firm control over major urban centers and opposition forces confined to specific areas. This period of relative calm led to a perception that the conflict was effectively frozen.
However, this stability was superficial. Various opposition groups remained active, and the country’s socioeconomic conditions continued to deteriorate.
While close observers of Syria may have spotted the warning signs of upcoming turmoil, many others were caught by surprise. This failure to see what was coming may have stemmed from several factors, including limited media coverage.
The media’s interest in Syria diminished over time as the civil war abated, leading to less reporting on the ongoing activities of rebel groups and the regime’s internal challenges. This lack of attention resulted in a perception of stability, masking the underlying tensions and preparations for renewed conflict.
Assad’s key allies face crisis
By November 2024, several factors converged to facilitate the recent rebel offensive:
Regional Distractions of Assad’s Allies: The Assad regime’s key supporters, Russia and Iran, became increasingly preoccupied with other conflicts. Russia’s military focus shifted towards Ukraine, while Iran’s proxy forces, most notably Hezbollah, faced a devastating war against Israel.
This diversion of attention and resources on several fronts weakened the Syrian regime’s external support. More broadly, Tehran’s entire proxy strategy fell apart, leaving Assad dangerously exposed.
Rebel Consolidation and Planning: Opposition groups, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed factions, utilized the lull in major hostilities to reorganize and strengthen their capabilities. This preparation enabled them to launch a coordinated and effective offensive when the opportunity arose.
Economic Decline and Public Discontent: Syria’s ongoing economic crisis, characterized by rampant inflation and widespread poverty, eroded public confidence in the Assad government. This economic hardship created a fertile ground for opposition forces to gain support and mobilize resources for their offensive.
In the bottom line, the rapid progression of the rebel offensive did not emerge from a vacuum but was the result of a combination of regional dynamics, strategic planning by opposition groups, and internal pressures.
These factors collectively undermined the regime’s stability and security, ultimately leading to the eruption of large-scale conflict that gravely threatens Assad’s survival as Syria’s ruler.
