Israel should reconsider its entire strategic approach to Russia as Moscow’s influence in Syria declines, according to a new report. The assessment by the INSS think tank highlights a significant reduction in Russia’s military footprint, which has implications for Israel’s security and strategic calculations.
The INSS analysis notes that Russia has been withdrawing substantial quantities of military gear from Syria. The report suggests that Russian forces will likely transition to a primarily defensive posture, with their bases in Syria functioning more as logistical hubs rather than active military installations.
This change is expected to diminish Russia’s ability to project power in the region, particularly from its strategic naval base in Tartus.
The decline in Russia’s military presence in Syria started earlier, as the Kremlin faces ongoing pressures from its war in Ukraine. With most of its resources diverted to the conflict in Europe, Moscow found it increasingly difficult to sustain operations in the Middle East even before the fall of the Syrian regime.
With the Assad regime gone, Russia’s freedom of action and room for maneuver in Syria has been deeply curtailed. The INSS report suggests that Moscow’s diminished role in Syria should reshape Israel’s game plan, as Russia’s operational and strategic leverage in the region erodes.
Shifting balance of power
For years, Israel had to carefully navigate its relationship with Russia, particularly to maintain its freedom of action against Iranian entrenchment in Syria. Moscow’s military presence, including advanced air defenses and deployment of personnel, was seen as a factor that Israel needed to consider in its decision-making.
However, with Russia losing influence, the report argues that Israel should not view Moscow as a major obstacle to its operations in Syria. From an Israeli standpoint, Russia no longer poses an immediate threat on the northern border, the analysis says.
Overall, the INSS report suggests that while Israel should continue to monitor Moscow’s role in Syria, it should no longer give undue weight to Russian concerns in its strategic planning. Instead, it should focus more on countering Iranian and Hezbollah threats, leveraging the shifting regional balance to secure its northern front more effectively.
Beyond the ongoing battle against Iran’s regional proxies, Israel also has a historic opportunity to attack Iran’s nuclear project, ex-IDF General Yisrael Ziv said earlier. A weakened Russia leaves Tehran even more exposed to Israeli military action, he wrote. [here’s a report on Israel’s unique opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear program]
In any case, Russia’s geopolitical decline should be a key consideration as Israel formulates a new defense doctrine in the wake of the October 7 war, ensuring its strategies align with the shifting balance of power in the region.
