In 2010, an Israeli professor made an interesting predication. He foresaw a major Middle East war in 2020 that would draw in both the United States and Russia. Missiles from Syria and Lebanon will rain down on Israel, prompting an Israeli incursion deep into Syrian territory, he wrote.
By the end of the war, he said, the Israel Defense Forces will reach Damascus.
A decade later, what once seemed like a wild forecast is now taking shape before our eyes. Soon, Israel may find itself embroiled in a regional war with far-reaching implications. Exactly as predicted
The professor is still around. He heads the graduate program in Information and Communication Technology at Bar-Ilan University. He is also Israel’s first bona fide futurist, having earned a PhD degree in Future Studies from the University of Minnesota. His name is David Passig.
Calculating War Cycles
When Professor Passig published his book, 2048, the Middle East was a very different place. The accuracy of the predictions that have come to pass since then is stunning. The dramatic regional changes set the stage for a 2020 war.
Passig foresaw Syria’s collapse as early as 2006. In his 2010 book, he warned that US-Russia tensions will grow in the coming decade and peak by 2020. He also predicted that Russia will be playing a bigger role in the Middle Eastern quagmire.
Since then, Syria disintegrated, Russia and Iran moved in, and Israel found itself facing grave new threats. US forces are still in the region despite some isolationist inclinations. The scenario has largely played out so far just as Passig predicted.
The predictions are partly based on researching and calculating global, regional and local war cycles. Passig discovered that all three cycles are expected to converge around the year 2020, suggesting that Israel will be involved in a war with both regional and global implications.
Air Force Prepares for War
Recent events move us closer to a devastating Middle East war in 2020, and possibly earlier. Israel has been on high alert for an Iranian offensive while promising brutal retaliation. Iran’s plans to produce precision-guided missiles in Lebanon add more fuel to the fire.
These and other threats have prompted the IDF to accelerate its war preparations in recent months.
On Tuesday, the Israel Air Force commander and top brass toured the northern sector and the Lebanon border.
The tour aimed to improve the Air Force’s collaboration with the IDF’s Northern Command in light of “changing assessments and threats in the northern theater,” the army said.
Meanwhile, a leaked briefing by a senior military officer revealed that the army expects 2020 to be a difficult year for Israel.
The head of the IDF Operations directorate, Aharon Haliva, warned that regional tensions and growing US-Russia friction are producing a lethal brew. In an audio recording of the briefing aired by public broadcaster Kan, Haliva stressed that the threat of a serious Iranian strike was tangible.
Professor Passig says that the future cannot be predicted with certainty, but uses complex mathematical models to come up with plausible scenarios. So far, the various players seem to have positioned themselves on the Middle Eastern chessboard just as he envisioned.
Will the great war he foresaw break out soon? And how will it end? The answers to those questions may be just around the corner.