Middle East War Predictions: Explosion in 2021?

Israeli expert’s stunning Middle East war predictions from 2010 are on the verge of materializing in explosive 2021.

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Middle East war predictions (Archive: Gadi Yampel, IDF/Creative Commons)

In 2010, an Israeli professor made some dramatic Middle East war predictions. He foresaw a huge military conflict erupting in the region around the year 2020, with US and Russian involvement. For Israel it would be the largest war in decades, he said.

The professor described this great war in detail. He wrote that missiles from Syria and Lebanon will rain down on Israeli cities, prompting an IDF incursion deep into enemy territory.

By the end of the war, he said, the Israeli army will reach Damascus.

In 2010, this seemed like a wild forecast. But amazing changes soon started to reshape the Middle East, just as the professor projected. By 2020, the region was on track for the large war he predicted. But then came the Coronavirus.

For long months, regional actors were preoccupied with COVID-19 and military tensions declined. But this didn’t last long. By now, the Middle East is again threatening to explode into violent conflict. Soon, Israel may find itself fighting a regional war with far-reaching implications. Exactly as predicted.

Calculating war cycles

The professor is still around. He heads the graduate program in Information and Communication Technology at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv. He is also Israel’s first bona fide futurist, with a PhD degree in Future Studies from the University of Minnesota. His name is David Passig.

When Professor Passig published his book, 2048, the Middle East was a very different place. The accuracy of the predictions that have come to pass since then is stunning. Overall, the scenario he described has largely played out just as he expected.

Passig foresaw Syria’s collapse as early as 2006, long before it started to fall apart. In his 2010 book, he warned that US-Russia tensions will grow over the next decade and that Moscow will again become a dominant force in the Middle East. All these predictions materialized within years.

Russian missiles
Russia back in the Middle East (Photo: Viacheslav Lopatin/Shutterstock.com)

In 2021, the Middle Eastern chessboard looks very different than it did a decade ago. Syria disintegrated, Russia and Iran moved in, and Israel found itself facing grave new threats. US forces are still in the region despite some isolationist tendencies. The stage is now set for the big Middle East war.

But how did Passig predict it? The professor says that the future remains uncertain, but complex mathematical models can help us come up with plausible scenarios.

Passig’s Middle East war predictions are partly based on researching historic cycles and calculating the frequency of global, regional and local wars. He discovered that all three cycles converge around the year 2020, suggesting that Israel will be involved in a war with regional and global implications.

Israel’s war preparations

Israel has been inching toward a large war for the past two years. In 2019, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told senior officers that the IDF must prepare to fight on multiple fronts. In 2020, the army held its largest war exercise in years with a focus on the northern front.

Israel continues to wage a hard-hitting bombing campaign to stop Iran’s military buildup in Syria, while keeping a close watch on Tehran’s nuclear project. As the friction grows, so does the likelihood of an all-out war.

The conditions for a direct clash with Iran are “riper than ever,” the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security recently warned. Some defense officials say that the intense IDF strikes in Syria will eventually trigger Iranian reprisals and spark an “explosion.”  

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IDF strikes in Syria (Archive: Peter R. Foster IDMA/Shutterstock.com)

Elsewhere, Iran’s plans to produce precision weapons in Lebanon add fuel to the fire. As Hezbollah converts more rockets to precise missiles, Israel nears the point of launching a preemptive strike. Fighting on the tense Israeli-Lebanese border can also escalate into a broader conflict.

Behind the scenes the IDF accelerated its war preparations, holding numerous exercises and fine-tuning its combat plans. Under Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, the army also adopted a more aggressive doctrine and boosted its capabilities and firepower.

So, will the great battle take place in 2021? While the latest regional moves fit perfectly with Passig’s Middle East war predictions, a broad conflict has not yet erupted. However, in retrospect we may discover that COVID-19 merely delayed the great war of 2020 by a few months.