The clock is ticking on the Iran nuclear crisis, with mounting evidence suggesting that Tehran is closer than ever to nuclear weapons capability.
According to data publicized by IAEA, Iran has enough enriched material to build several nuclear bombs, with uranium stockpiles growing fast. The quantities of uranium amassed by Tehran are inconsistent with any use except for producing nuclear weapons.
Iranian scientists are also engaged in suspicious research activities normally linked to weaponization. All the latest alarming developments are intensifying debates in Washington and Jerusalem over how to respond, as diplomatic efforts falter.
Former IDF intelligence chief Tamir Hayman says that military action is required if Iran enriches uranium to weapons grade 90%. The debate is whether to attack the Iranian nuclear program before or after it happens, he wrote on X.
This dilemma is the crux of high-stakes discussions between Israel and the United States. Axios reports that a high-level Israeli delegation, including IDF and Mossad officers, will travel to Washington next week for strategic talks on Iran.
The urgency also stems from President Trump’s reported ultimatum, delivered via a letter to Tehran, setting a two-month deadline for a new nuclear deal.
Israel keeps low profile
The prospects for diplomacy appear bleak at this time. National security expert Danny Citrinowicz warns that chances of securing a nuclear deal with Iran are slim under current conditions. If Trump sticks to his two-month timeline, a clash with Tehran is almost unavoidable, the veteran analyst wrote on X.
The Iranian leadership has so far rebuffed Trump’s calls for direct talks under his “maximum pressure” policy. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted that Tehran will not negotiate while sanctions persist.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei doubled down, dismissing Trump’s letter and vowing not to bow to pressure on the regime’s nuclear or missile programs. It’s unclear whether this hardline stance is a negotiation tactic or signals a deep-seated Iranian refusal to compromise.
The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that Israel is seriously considering a military assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities in 2025, citing US intel estimates.
Meanwhile, Israel has been quiet about military preparations to attack Iran’s nuclear project. This may reflect Jerusalem’s desire to keep a low-profile as the US takes the lead, or possibly to deceive Iran about Israel’s readiness to take military action. [Deep dive: Will Israel attack Iran’s nuclear program in 2025?]