October 7 fundamentally changed Israel’s security calculus. The policy of watching threats grow along its borders is gone. This was replaced with a doctrine of preemption that Israel is now preparing to test against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israeli officials have made clear that operational plans are ready, and the trigger for major action may come soon.
According to Kan News, Israel has abandoned its traditional approach of proportional retaliation. Even minor attacks will now provoke disproportionate responses, with both Hezbollah and Lebanon paying a heavy price. The message is unambiguous: the old rules no longer apply.
This shift comes as Hezbollah races to rebuild. Israeli intelligence reports indicate the group is smuggling rockets into Lebanon and restoring arms production facilities, including drone manufacturing in Beirut.
Despite losing much of its senior leadership and significant military infrastructure during the 2024 conflict, Hezbollah is still well-armed. US envoy Barrack recently assessed that the group retains 40,000 fighters and between 15,000 and 20,000 rockets, mostly short-range but still capable of threatening Israeli cities.
‘Hezbollah is playing with fire’
Israel has responded with ongoing low-intensity strikes targeting Hezbollah operatives and weapons shipments. But these pinprick operations aren’t keeping pace with Hezbollah’s reconstruction efforts.
Now Israeli officials face a strategic decision: launch a major offensive to shatter what remains of Hezbollah’s military power, or watch the threat reconstitute itself.
The clock is ticking. A US-brokered ceasefire set a deadline of late 2025 for demilitarizing southern Lebanon, a timeline that’s rapidly approaching with insufficient progress. American patience is reportedly wearing thin.
Defense Minister Israel Katz warned bluntly that “Hezbollah is playing with fire,” while Israeli officials have threatened strikes across Lebanon, including Hezbollah’s nerve center in Beirut, if disarmament doesn’t occur.
The bottom line: with Hezbollah’s military buildup accelerating and diplomatic solutions stalling, Israel’s new defense doctrine may soon be implemented in Lebanon.
