The current Israeli air campaign in Lebanon began with a limited objective: Secure the safe return of border area residents by exerting military pressure on Hezbollah. However, the IDF’s remarkable battlefield success opened the door to a much larger and more ambitious goal – the potential neutralization of Hezbollah as a major threat.
This broader strategic vision would require Israel to systematically dismantle Hezbollah’s military and organizational capacity, going far beyond the initial aim. The IDF would be launching a much wider campaign, with the intent of crippling Hezbollah’s ability to operate as a powerful military force. [here’s what an all-out war may look like, according to IDF ex-general]
Achieving this goal promises tremendous rewards. Fully neutralizing Hezbollah would eliminate the most significant and immediate conventional threat faced by Israel for decades, altering the security landscape in the region and providing long-term stability for Israel’s northern towns.
However, the risks are also high. A prolonged conflict could embroil Israel in a costly war, with the possibility of sparking a regional conflict with the Iran axis. After a year of fighting in Gaza, Israel may be ill advised to embark on another major war, imposing a heavier burden on the IDF and local economy.
As is often the case at such junctions, there is no clear or easy answer. Both options carry significant risks and rewards. What is clear, however, is that Israel must decide soon. A focused, coherent strategy is essential to securing any objective, whether limited or broad.
A dangerous possibility for Israel at this time is indecision. Allowing events to dictate the course of action without a clear aim could lead to improvised, unfocused steps that fail to achieve any objective on terms favorable to Israel.
IDF prepares for ground ops
Currently there are indications that Israel is preparing for limited cross-border action rather than an all-out assault. The IDF plans to launch a “very limited” ground operation in Lebanon, a US official told ABC. Small-scale raids may already be underway, another American source said.
Earlier, IDF Northern Command Chief Ori Gordin urged the Israeli government to approve the takeover of Lebanese territory to create a buffer zone against Hezbollah. This was before the launch of Israel’s large air campaign, and may be more relevant now that Hezbollah has been considerably weakened.
For the time being, Israel intends to keep bombing and weakening Hezbollah as much as possible until a diplomatic deal stops the fighting, N12 News reported. The IDF is also preparing for ground maneuvers to destroy Hezbollah posts in Lebanese border towns, the report said.
Presenting an uncompromising position, Foreign Minister Katz told counterparts in over 25 countries that Israel will not accept a ceasefire before Hezbollah is pushed out of southern Lebanon and disarmed.
