A former IDF intelligence officer says Israel must take action to expel Iranian forces from Syrian territory. Syria’s strategic importance for Iran may grow as Hezbollah’s strength declines, Lt. Col. (res.) Amit Yagur warns.
Syria’s strategic location, the Assad regime’s weakness, and Iran’s alliance with Russia offer Tehran an opportunity to reshape Syria into an Iranian puppet state, Yagur says. This strategic project is already well underway, he wrote in Maariv Online.
Tehran views Iran’s gradual transformation of Syria into a Shiite state as a key element of its regional agenda, Yagur said. Syria already serves as a vital bridge and base for Iran’s proxies, the ex-intel officer wrote, citing reports that 570 military bases in Syria are under Iranian control.
However, Yagur argues that Israel currently has a unique opportunity to roll back this emerging strategic threat. Given Russia’s involvement in Ukraine and Syria’s current vulnerabilities, the timing is right for stronger Israeli action, he says.
Rather than waging an ongoing low-intensity campaign, Israel must shift its objective to permanently removing all Iranian forces and militias from Syrian soil, Yagur wrote. He suggested that Israel issue an ultimatum, demanding Iran withdraw from Syria within 72 hours or face wide-scale military action.
Militias and key bases
Iran’s military deployment in Syria comprises by a strategic array of forces, bases, and weaponry aimed at solidifying its influence, supporting the Assad regime, and potentially threatening Israel.
A critical component of Iran’s presence is the deployment of IRGC forces. Iranian officers operate in an advisory capacity, focusing on training Syrian and proxy forces as well as directing operations.
Alongside the IRGC, Iran established a network of militias, enabling Tehran to operate with flexibility and sustain its military efforts with low Iranian casualties.
Notably, Iran’s military footprint in Syria also includes multiple assets and installations.
One of the most prominent is the Imam Ali military base near the border with Iraq in Deir Ezzor province. This base is strategically positioned along one of the main smuggling routes Iran uses to transfer weapons and personnel between Iraq and Syria.
The base is heavily fortified, housing Iranian forces and militias and serving as a logistical hub for weapon storage and distribution. Additionally, Iran established smaller bases and command centers across Syria.
Massive arms smuggling
In parallel, Iran supplies its militias and the Assad regime with a variety of arms, including surface-to-surface missiles, drones, and air defense systems. One of the most concerning aspect of Iran’s military assistance has been the transfer of precision-guided missiles and rockets to Hezbollah through Syria.
Some high-precision missiles were also directly deployed in Syrian territory and aimed at Israel, according to a senior IDF officer.
Iran uses a network of land corridors, primarily through Iraq and into eastern Syria, as well as air routes via Damascus International Airport, to smuggle these weapons. [Here’s a detailed report on Iran’s military presence in eastern Syria]
Overland routes that cross through the Al Bukamal border crossing, controlled by Iranian-backed forces, are central to these smuggling efforts. Weapons smuggled through this route are often transported to storage facilities in Syria or directly to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Given the massive Iranian presence at this strategic crossroads, the Syrian theater will sooner or later become a top priority issue. By dramatically reducing Iran’s presence in Syria, Israel will take a big step in reshaping its security landscape and curbing Tehran’s grand strategy.
