Analysis / Iran-Israel Conflict Enters Dangerous Phase

Iran-Israel conflict heating up (Photo: Ffikretow/iStock)

Iran-Israel conflict heating up: The Iran axis and Israel are threatening to escalate their low-intensity war as the danger of a wider clash rises. In the latest indication of the growing risk, Israeli radars detected multiple drone infiltration attempts on the Lebanon and Gaza borders in the past 24 hours.

The IDF downed a Hezbollah drone Thursday and intercepted a Hamas UAV a few hours later. Friday morning, the army activated Iron Dome and scrambled fighter jets after another drone crossed into Israel from Lebanon.

The drone infiltrations tested Israel’s defenses but also conveyed a warning message: Tehran and its proxies are adopting a more aggressive approach and signaling lower tolerance for IDF strikes in Syria and elsewhere.

Iran may be trying to change the rules of the game and could eventually retaliate for Israeli attacks, intelligence expert Danny Citrinowicz warned recently. This could trigger a harsh IDF response and drag both sides into a broader conflict, possibly on more than one front.

In parallel, Israel is advancing a campaign to target Iran on its home turf. The wide-ranging plan to weaken the Iranian regime is already underway, Prime Minister Bennett said this month in a speech at the INSS think tank.

Israel plans to take action on multiple levels, including military strikes, secret operations, and cyber attacks, the PM said. Some moves will be carried out in cooperation with other countries, he added.

An unconfirmed report says that Israel already attacked an Iranian military base this week. Mossad carried out the assault by using UAVs and destroyed several structures, according to intelligence blog WorldNewsIL.

The information has not been verified by other sources for now, but a large fire was reported in a western Iran base earlier this week.

If Israel did strike, this could explain the uptick in drone incidents on the Lebanon and Gaza borders. Notably, the IDF is already on alert for Iranian drone strikes after 2 UAVs shot down in Iraq were possibly headed for Israeli territory.

Overall, both Israel and Iran appear to be ready to take greater risks and stronger action. This dynamic increases the risk of isolated security incidents sparking a major fight.

On a final note, the dangerous situation developing in the region is also linked to the growing global disorder. With the US in retreat and international attention focused on the Ukraine crisis, the Middle East may soon enter a more violent period.