Hezbollah took a huge gamble by starting a war with Israel; an incredibly foolish risk that carried a devastating cost.
Intoxicated by their own propaganda, Nasrallah and Iran ignored some uncomfortable realities: The Shiites in Lebanon and the Assad regime in Syria are minorities that rely heavily on Hezbollah’s military power to survive.
Provoking Israel was a tremendously risky and ultimately disastrous move, paving the way for the IDF to shatter much of Hezbollah’s arsenal and eliminate its leadership. This left the Syrian regime dangerously exposed, especially with Iran and Russia preoccupied on other fronts.
Syria’s rebels seized the moment, launching a swift and far-reaching assault. Israel and the US quietly blocked any immediate foreign support for Assad’s army, which quickly crumbled.
The regime’s collapse was so rapid, and its internal rot so deep, that Tehran and Moscow likely had no time to intervene effectively, even if they had the will and capacity to do so.
Hezbollah’s self-destruction
All of this was entirely avoidable. Hezbollah had no good reason to start such a risky war with Israel. But the group’s leaders clung to detached notions of “deterrence equations” and inflated estimates of Hezbollah’s military strength.
Nasrallah was certain he could dictate the terms of a limited conflict, failing to see that the rules changed—and that once the IDF was finished in Gaza, it would strike Lebanon with full force. [here’s more on Hezbollah’s deeply flawed reading of Israel]
Underestimating Israel’s intentions, resolve, and capabilities had fatal consequences. By failing to seek an earlier ceasefire, Hezbollah turned a costly but bearable military skirmish into a full-blown strategic disaster, not just for itself but for the entire Iran axis.
Due to heavy losses, Hezbollah lost its ability to serve as Iran’s primary deterrent and as the key protector of the Syrian regime, a critical piece of Iran’s regional strategy. Within a few short months, Israel launched an unprecedented strike in Iranian territory, and Assad’s regime collapsed.
And so, in an ironic twist of fate, Hamas’ and Hezbollah’s reckless actions set the stage for the destruction of the Iran axis and Tehran’s grand vision.
