The conclusion of the Gaza war has defied many expectations. Here are five key insights from how the conflict ended:
Hamas was desperate to end the war: Virtually all observers assumed Hamas would keep some hostages for years as its last bargaining chip. Instead, the group released all remaining captives even before Israel’s full withdrawal.
This extraordinary reversal is a strong indication that Hamas urgently sought to end the war, a clear admission of exhaustion and defeat.
The war is very likely over: Even if phase 2 talks collapse, the conflict is unlikely to reignite. President Trump is committed to ending the war, and Israel will lack the domestic and global legitimacy to relaunch it.
Instead, Israel now holds two powerful cards: It can halt further withdrawals from Gaza and block reconstruction efforts if a phase 2 deal is not finalized and Hamas fails to disarm.
For Hamas, this represents a catastrophic outcome no matter what happens next. In any case, this was likely the last large-scale Gaza war.
Hamas army is not coming back: Rebuilding the October 7 Hamas terror army will be extremely difficult, with its leadership and top command decimated, up to 20,000 terrorists killed, numerous military assets destroyed, and much of Gaza in ruins.
Restoring these lost capabilities would require massive efforts and resources, as well as freedom of movement that no longer exists. Hamas faces years of rebuilding even under ideal conditions, but with Israeli surveillance and active disruption it may never fully recover.
Tunnel destruction remains a major challenge: Defense Minister Katz announced that Israel’s next mission is to destroy Gaza’s remaining terror tunnels, with help from international forces.
Even if Hamas accepts, the scale of this tunnel network is staggering and up to 50% survived. There may not be enough explosives in Israel to eliminate the entire system, a project that could take years even in best-case scenarios.
Iran’s costly miscalculation: Tehran’s heavy investment in Hamas yielded catastrophic results: The near-destruction of its proxy and the Gaza terror base, and a chain reaction that shattered much of the Iran axis.
Moving forward, this failure could deter other regional militias from relying on Tehran or entering unwinnable conflicts against Israel on Iran’s behalf.
