Six months after the outbreak of the 12-day war, Iran is rebuilding fast, with priority on missiles. Open-source assessments and Israeli intel analysis point to rapid reconstitution of ballistic missile stocks and production capacity.
Israel did not fully destroy Iran’s strategic capabilities (nuclear, missile tech) and may feel compelled to act again to block Iranian recovery.
Israeli leaders have publicly stated that Israel would launch renewed strikes if Iran restores key missile, air defense, or nuclear facilities that threaten Israel’s security.
While the risk of reignited Israel-Iran military conflict persists, several factors moderate it:
Both Iran and Israel know another war could be highly destructive. Iran especially risks major damage to core assets, at the time when the regime faces severe domestic troubles.
Global powers, including the US and Europe, largely want to prevent a resumption of open war and will push hard for restraint.
Mutual deterrence, and especially the threat of a strong Israeli, American, or combined response, still carries weight.
Under the current conditions, the ingredients for war exist and are simmering, but thresholds are still relatively high. Escalation would require a triggering event, not just ongoing tension.
Bottom line: For now, Israel and Iran are not yet locked into a new full-scale war path. However, the risk of renewed conflict remains elevated.
