Israel is advancing plans for military action in Lebanon that could dramatically reshape the conflict with Hezbollah. In the latest development, IDF Northern Command Chief Ori Gordin has called on the government to authorize the creation of a buffer zone against Hezbollah inside Lebanon.
Gordin reportedly emphasized that conditions are ideal for a swift military operation, as Hezbollah pulled back many of its elite forces from the border area.
In addition, residents have fled southern Lebanese villages en masse due to the ongoing conflict, with only around 20% remaining in the area, potentially simplifying Israeli maneuvers.
Still, combat in southern Lebanon will likely be difficult. Notably, Hezbollah is well-entrenched in the area and armed with a large quantity of anti-tank missiles.
Military journalist Yossi Yehoshua reports that senior IDF officers are advocating for a surprise assault to maximize gains and allow Israel to seize the initiative, rather than being drawn into a conflict through uncontrolled escalation.
The proposed operation, which would be the first of its kind in many years, is expected to mark the opening of a larger war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Air Force chief in favor
In parallel, the IDF assured the political leadership that Israel’s munition stockpiles are sufficient for a war in Lebanon, Ynet reports.
Israel’s military preparations for a major clash are well underway, with combat forces completing large exercises in recent months. The IDF has also stepped up strikes in Lebanon to knock out Hezbollah assets and operatives ahead of a potential war.
Currently, both General Gordin and Air Force Commander Tomer Bar reportedly support launching a larger campaign. However, according to Yehoshua, Defense Minister Gallant objects for now.
Meanwhile, IDF Chief Halevi prefers to wait for the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza, which could potentially de-escalate tensions with Hezbollah.
Another factor to consider is the weather: Launching a war in winter could hinder IDF advances, Yehoshua says.
War within weeks?
PM Netanyahu has also signaled that Israel is preparing for a large-scale confrontation with Hezbollah during a recent security meeting. An unnamed Israeli official indicated that an operation could be launched within a few weeks or months, pending Jerusalem’s efforts to secure international support.
Despite Israel’s efforts to avoid an all-out war with Hezbollah for long months, the situation has become increasingly volatile. Without a stable ceasefire and the safe return of Israeli residents to border area towns, the IDF may soon receive orders to launch a military campaign.
But even if a broader conflict erupts, both sides may initially attempt to contain the scope of fighting.
While Israel is likely to focus its strikes on Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa region, it may avoid targeting Beirut. Similarly, Hezbollah may choose to direct its fire at more targets in northern Israel but refrain from attacking Tel Aviv.
Nevertheless, the risk of a wider regional war remains a pressing concern, as the fighting could quickly spiral out of control.
