Hassan Nasrallah, once viewed as Hezbollah’s unshakable leader, now finds his stature declining amid mounting failures and Iran’s growing frustration.
Long praised as a shrewd and calculating strategist, Nasrallah’s leadership is increasingly questioned as Israel’s relentless operations devastate Hezbollah’s ranks and command structure.
Facing internal discontent and the loss of trust from Tehran, Nasrallah’s control over the organization appears more fragile than ever.
Mideast analyst Ronit Marzan estimates that Nasrallah’s standing in the eyes of Iran has been weakened. Tehran may even consider replacing him with a military leader from Iraq’s militias, who could be better suited to navigate the current crisis, she says.
As a religious cleric and politician, Nasrallah lacks the military credentials that could bolster his authority and performance at times of acute conflict. Marzan notes that he has lost most of the iconic military chiefs who once stood by his side, leaving him isolated at a critical moment.
Under Nasrallah’s leadership, Hezbollah failed to prevent deep Israeli intel penetrations, which wreaked havoc on the organization. Iran is reportedly frustrated with Hezbollah’s inability to prevent breaches that led to devastating Israeli operations.
Nasrallah under pressure
However, the pressure on Nasrallah is not just external. Hezbollah’s field commanders are reportedly urging him to escalate attacks on Israel, driven by a sense of humiliation and concern over recent Israeli operations.
Arab affairs expert Amatzia Baram told Maariv Online that these commanders feel vulnerable, especially after Israel’s precision strikes and the recent explosions of electronic devices, which led to the deaths of key operatives and left thousands of Hezbollah members wounded.
The fear of being the next target is driving growing demands for a stronger response, he said.
Baram noted that some field commanders have direct communication lines to Nasrallah, allowing them to convey their views. Although Nasrallah likely prefers to avoid a full-scale conflict with Israel, the growing pressure from within may force his hand, Baram said. [here’s a detailed report on Nasrallah’s psychological profile]
At the grassroots level, frustration within Hezbollah may also be growing, though it is unlikely to be voiced publicly. Nasrallah’s public call to shift communications to pagers, which were supposed to be more secure, has backfired spectacularly, leaving many operatives dead or seriously injured.
This stunning setback has likely generated anger within the ranks, with Nasrallah seen as partly responsible for this failure.
Uncertain future
On a broader strategic level, Hezbollah’s commitment to continue fighting as long as the war in Gaza persists has also been costly. While the group achieved some success, the losses have been substantial.
The IDF systematically targeted and eliminated much of Hezbollah’s top command, including members of its elite Radwan force, leaving the organization in a weakened state.
Currently, the organization is under a massive air campaign as Israel aims to significantly reduce its arms stockpiles and strike capabilities.
In hindsight, Nasrallah would have been wiser to secure a ceasefire earlier in the conflict, sparing Hezbollah significant losses. By choosing to continue the fight, the group now finds itself embroiled in an escalating conflict with no clear exit, raising questions about its future and the future of its leader.
As the costs of the conflict continue to mount, Nasrallah’s leadership appears increasingly precarious. Whether he can weather this storm – or whether Iran will decide that his time has come – remains to be seen.
