Donald Trump’s presidency rekindled optimism in Jerusalem, but his return presents an unpredictable mix of opportunities and risks for Israel.
Trump’s first term delivered some landmark moments. Moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem, brokering the Abraham Accords, and exiting the Iran nuclear deal aligned closely with Israel’s agenda.
In 2025, his administration is expected to double down on this support, potentially approving an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear project and advancing a peace deal with Saudi Arabia.
Even without military action, Trump’s “maximum pressure” approach to Iran could push Tehran into major concessions. This may reduce the Iranian threat dramatically, resetting the regional balance in Israel’s favor.
In parallel, the new US administration is offering strong public support to Israel on the Palestinian track, and may back aggressive moves in Gaza and elsewhere. Trump’s relocation plan, while still evolving, could dramatically reshape the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
America First
However, the Trump era comes with some risks for Israel.
The president’s transactional approach—evident in his threat to withhold aid from allies unwilling to toe his line—could strain Jerusalem’s autonomy.
Trump’s focus on ending Middle East conflicts quickly, as seen in his role brokering the January 2025 Gaza ceasefire, may push Israel toward concessions it resists, such as a Palestinian governance framework.
Moreover, Trump’s “America First” agenda might divert US resources and attention to domestic priorities or a looming China rivalry. If Washington faces unexpected crises or challenges, support for Israel may become a secondary priority.
Overall, Israel’s leadership could find itself navigating a US partnership that is both empowering and unpredictable.
The Russia factor
Russia’s war in Ukraine shapes Israel’s global context and threat environment indirectly but significantly. Trump has vowed to end the conflict quickly, on terms that may be highly favorable for Moscow.
A potential deal that cedes Ukrainian territory to bring an end to the war could stabilize Russia’s economy and military, allowing Moscow to refocus on the Middle East.
This would alarm Israel, given Russia’s role as a former Syrian power-broker and Iran’s ally.
The fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 weakened Moscow’s regional foothold, possibly prompting Israel to rethink it’s Russia policy. However, a Russian recovery could help bolster the struggling Iran axis and revitalize hostile actors on Israel’s borders.
Based on Trump’s early signals, Israel must prepare to face a Russia that is less distracted and more assertive. Moreover, improved US-Russian relations will require Israel to reassess its geopolitical strategy.
