The Iranian regime may be facing its most dangerous moment in decades, as internal and external weaknesses threaten its grip on power. An Israeli expert says the West must prepare to step in quickly to support a potential uprising.
Dr. Eran Lerman, a veteran analyst at the JISS think tank, highlights growing signs of public and political discontent, driven by a faltering economy and exacerbated by external pressures. If this deepening crisis sparks widespread social unrest, the outcome could be chaotic and far-reaching. This presents a critical window for action.
As the Iranian regime stumbles, Lerman argues that the United States, European powers and Israel must seize the opportunity to support a potential uprising to hasten the end of Tehran’s authoritarian rule.
This could involve supporting the mobilization of anti-regime forces, he writes, while also ensuring access to social media platforms. Engaging in dialogue with emerging opposition leaders could also help bolster a fragmented resistance.
The Iranian decline
Iran’s economic woes have long been a source of unrest, with citizens grappling with rampant inflation, unemployment, and a devalued currency. The re-imposition of US sanctions under President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign will likely intensify these struggles.
As the policy’s full impact ripples through the country, it will erode the regime’s ability to placate its traditional power base while augmenting wide-scale frustration across Iranian society. [here’s a detailed report: Is the Iranian regime facing an existential crisis?]
Compounding these domestic challenges are Iran’s regional setbacks, Lerman says. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, a key ally bolstered by billions of dollars in Iranian support, has dealt a significant blow to Tehran’s ambitions.
The loss of this strategic foothold, coupled with setbacks in Lebanon, Iraq and Gaza, weakened Iran’s image as a formidable regional power. [here’s more on the impact of Hezbollah’s decline on Iran’s military posture]
Another potential blow to the regime could come in the form of an Israeli or US-led strike on Iran’s nuclear program. With time running out and Tehran’s continued progress toward weaponization, the fate of the Iranian nuclear project will likely be decided in 2025.