The rivalry between Israel and Turkey is nearing a dangerous juncture as these two regional powers face off in Syria.
Syria remains a volatile flashpoint where both nations pursue clashing objectives: Israel prioritizes security, while Turkey seeks regional dominance. Any miscalculation or deadly incident could quickly ignite a broader confrontation.
Tensions between Turkey and Israel are already high. Under President Erdogan, Turkey has taken an increasingly adversarial stance, and the fluid situation in Syria could serve as an explosive trigger for escalation.
Following the fall of the Assad regime, Israel expanded its military presence beyond the Golan Heights, enlarging its buffer zone while conducting operations to prevent hostile forces from consolidating power near its border.
Turkey, backing the HTS-led Syrian government, views Israel’s actions as a direct challenge to its regional influence and aspirations to control Syria.
Escalation scenarios
If a Turkish-supported faction in Syria were to carry out attacks on the IDF, Israel could retaliate by targeting Turkey’s proxies or Turkish supply lines. Ankara, in turn, could frame this as an attack on its core interests, justifying a military response.
Turkey’s history of arming regional proxies and Israel’s aggressive military stance make such a scenario plausible. The risk grows if Turkey further entrenches its influence in Syria.
While initial clashes might remain limited, escalation could draw in Turkish air or ground forces, particularly if casualties mount. If Erdogan faces domestic political or economic challenges, he might double down on his anti-Israel stance to rally nationalist support.
A further provocation—such as sending a flotilla to Gaza or staging a border incident via Syria—could prompt an Israeli response, spiraling into a broader conflict. [here’s a detailed comparison between Israel’s and Turkey’s military strength]
However, several factors temper the likelihood of Turkey posing an immediate, direct threat. Both nations maintain strategic ties with the US, and a military confrontation would risk NATO complications and American displeasure.
Additionally, Turkey is grappling with economic difficulties and regional over-extension, managing multiple fronts across the Middle East. Engaging in open conflict with Israel—one of the region’s most formidable military powers—would carry significant risks.
Indirect conflict, for now
Expert opinions reflect this complexity. Some observers view Turkey’s threats as hollow posturing, noting its reluctance to challenge Israeli military operations in Syria so far. Others, however, warn that Ankara’s growing influence in Syria and extensive military capabilities present a serious concern for Israel.
Analysts stress that while Turkey is a rival rather than an outright enemy, its strategic position and ambitions demand vigilance. According to the latest assessment by the INSS think tank, Turkey is a potential threat that requires monitoring and initial readiness for conflict.
In conclusion, Turkey’s military strength, regional reach, and ideological hostility pose a significant challenge for Israel, particularly in the Syrian arena. However, the threat of direct Israeli-Turkish war is not imminent.
For now, practical constraints and mutual deterrence suggest that any confrontation is more likely to play out indirectly—through proxies, covert actions, or diplomatic maneuvering—rather than escalate into open war.
Meanwhile, Israel’s military posture in Syria underscores its seriousness in countering Turkish influence. Ultimately, the extent of the threat hinges on whether Turkey translates its belligerent rhetoric into concrete action. [Will Israel and Turkey go to war by 2030? Here’s an in-depth report]
