The ongoing military conflict with Iran has taken a growing toll in Israel. More than 20 people have been killed in Iranian missile attacks, each one a tragedy. But in strategic terms, the numbers are far below the devastating projections for a direct clash with Tehran. This is not the nightmare scenario many had feared.
For years, Israeli war planners widely expected to face the full force of the Iran axis in optimal condition: Hezbollah launching thousands of rockets from the north, Hamas attacking from Gaza, and a confident Iran striking directly.
However, months of war dramatically changed the equation. The military strength of Hamas and Hezbollah has been shattered, and Iran itself is now battered and largely defenseless. The coalition designed to encircle and exhaust Israel is collapsing.
Israel is currently decimating its largest and strongest enemy: Strategic facilities deep inside Iran have been hit with precision, air defenses dismantled, key bases destroyed, and sensitive nuclear sites severely damaged. Top military commanders in the Revolutionary Guards have been eliminated.
From a strategic perspective, the cost-benefit equation is striking. Israel’s most dangerous enemy is seeing its military machine and regional influence systematically destroyed. In contrast, Israel’s losses, while painful, remain limited in scope.
Looking ahead, an entirely new security environment is taking shape around Israel. The “ring of fire” Iran spent years building via proxy forces and missile arsenals is broken. What was once a carefully orchestrated threat matrix has unraveled.
Tehran now faces the humbling realization that its long game and grand strategy have failed.
This war is still not over, but the direction is clear: Israel is reshaping the regional balance of power through decisive military action on a grand scale. Iran, for all its rhetoric, is bleeding strategically, militarily, and politically.
Once this long war ends and the dust settles, Israel will likely find itself in a dramatically improved strategic position, facing an adversary that may never fully recover.