President Donald Trump’s plan to relocate Gaza residents already has an immediate effect: It blocks Gaza’s reconstruction until further notice. Seen in this context, it makes no difference if the plan materializes or not.
As long as this is the official US position, no one will rebuild Gaza against America’s wishes. No country or donor will invest billions in reconstruction when Israel could bomb everything again tomorrow, with US backing.
For Hamas, this is a huge problem. The group has no way to rebuild Gaza on its own; it relies entirely on foreign aid. If that aid doesn’t come, Gaza remains a disaster zone, and the local population will grow increasingly frustrated. Gazans hate Israel, but they’re also learning to hate Hamas.
Hamas has no good options. It can respond by torpedoing the hostage deal or renewing some attacks on Israel, but this would trigger a large-scale IDF response. More of Gaza would be destroyed, more Hamas assets would be wiped out, and public anger would grow. Yet Hamas would still have no path to reconstruction.
Over time, Trump will likely convince at least some countries to take in a number of Gazans. Even if it starts as a trickle rather than a mass exodus, any steady departure of Palestinians from Gaza would increase the pressure on Hamas. Time is no longer on their side.
Gaza will not be the same
Trump is breaking the traditional Gaza reconstruction model. He is reinforcing his approach with additional measures, such as defunding UNRWA, further complicating matters for Hamas.
The old model was a key asset for Hamas, ensuring that no matter how much destruction Gaza suffered, foreign money would eventually rebuild it, allowing Hamas to prepare for the next round. That assumption has been shattered.
Moving forward, Trump will push for the Gaza relocation plan, but he is also open to alternatives. The key point is that, unless he gets an offer he likes, Gaza remains stuck in limbo. That is not a bad tactic, creating a new approach that puts tremendous pressure on Hamas and its backers.
In the longer term, some level of relocation from Gaza will likely happen. Even if Trump’s plan does not fully materialize, the idea is out there, and many Gazans want to leave. They will find ways to do so. Regardless of how this unfolds, Hamas and Gaza will not be the same. [here’s a detailed report on Gaza’s hopeless future]
