The Iranian regime’s future looks increasingly grim and shaky, with domestic and external pressures threatening to erupt on multiple fronts. Unless Tehran is able to change its current direction, the regime’s survival will be in jeopardy.
Economic crisis: Iran faces severe economic issues, including high inflation, currency depreciation, and energy crises. The economy has been significantly impacted by US sanctions, which limited access to international markets and financial systems.
The sanctions left Iran heavily reliant on oil exports that are often smuggled or sold under the radar. Inflation, corruption, and currency devaluation further undermined growth.
Currently the regime also struggles to cope with a grave energy shortage, including natural gas deficits, despite vast reserves. Years of lacking investment, mismanagement, and sanctions have prevented modernization of Iran’s infrastructure.
The regime has acknowledged the crisis, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei admitting that the economy is “a decade behind.” The economic struggles are compounded by high unemployment and poverty rates, potentially fueling further public discontent.
Internal troubles: Internally, the regime contends with significant public unrest, particularly since a harsh crackdown on protests in 2022. The regime’s legitimacy has been questioned, with growing demands for political reform or even regime change from various segments of society.
This unrest is exacerbated by economic hardships and governmental inefficiencies. Iran’s young, educated population is increasingly disaffected by economic prospects and government repression.
The regime depends on brute force and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to maintain control, but such measures are a recipe for constant anger and fragile stability.
Demographic decline poses another critical challenge for the regime. The aging population and a shrinking middle class could lead to further economic and social instability. A declining birth rate creates long-term labor and pension challenges.
Geopolitical decline: The geopolitical landscape for Iran has shifted dramatically, with the severe weakening of key proxy terror armies like Hezbollah and Hamas. The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria, a key piece of Tehran’s regional puzzle, undermines the foundations of Iran’s grand strategy, which now faces complete collapse.
Overall, the loss of proxies is rapidly diminishing Iran’s regional reach, potentially leading to a strategic retreat or a reevaluation of its entire doctrine. [here’s a detailed report on Iran’s proxy strategy falling apart]
Moreover, the regime’s strategy of sustaining multiple proxies across the region has overstretched its resources. Investments of billions of dollars have now gone to waste. In parallel, Iran is increasingly forced to defend its homeland against Israeli airstrikes, cyber attacks, sabotage and internal unrest, further undermining its ambitions.
This geopolitical decline has come at a time when Iran’s strategic maneuvers, such as cooperation with Russia and missile attacks on Israel, further isolated the regime. Tehran’s pivot towards Eastern alliances like China and Russia offers limited benefits but no solutions for its worsening problems.
Deep crisis, no new vision: Looking ahead, Internal pressures, proxy failures, and economic decline are already creating cracks in the system. Increased dependency on authoritarian measures and external partnerships help keep the regime in power but deepens internal instability.
As the situation deteriorates, the regime could face an internal power struggle between reformists and hardliners, weakening its grip even more. For now, Iran’s leadership seems to lack any vision or capacity for changing course.
In summary, while the Iranian regime managed to survive crises historically, the current crisis is multifaceted and profound. Iran’s leaders rely on repression to maintain control, but this approach is becoming less viable as conditions worsen. External shocks such as military strikes or large-scale domestic revolts could push the regime past the point of no return, toward an ultimate collapse.
