The dramatic geopolitical shifts in the Middle East have created an unprecedented opportunity for Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear project. With key adversaries weakened and air defense systems neutralized, Israel’s path to Iran’s nuclear facilities has never been more open.
In October, the IDF launched multiple strikes that crippled Iran’s primary air defense assets, leaving large areas and sensitive installations significantly exposed. [Here’s more on Israel’s high-impact, low-profile strike]
Compounding this vulnerability, the IDF estimates that 86% of Syria’s air defenses—once considered the densest anti-aircraft array in the world—were destroyed in a series of airstrikes following the fall of the Assad regime. This development transformed Syrian airspace from a heavily defended zone into a safe corridor for the Israeli Air Force.
Recognizing the opportunity, Israel’s defense establishment is reportedly preparing strike options for government review, according to military journalist Doron Kadosh.
The Iranian decline
Former IDF General Yisrael Ziv has described this moment as a “historic opportunity” for both Israel and the United States.
A military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is unlikely to ignite a full-scale regional war, Ziv wrote, as the Iran-led axis of resistance has been severely weakened. Hezbollah, Tehran’s most formidable proxy, suffered significant setbacks in the war, while Hamas was largely decimated. Both groups are no longer able to shield the Iranian regime.
Furthermore, Iran’s key ally, Russia, is preoccupied with its own struggles in Ukraine, limiting its capacity to assist Tehran. [Here’s a detailed report on Iran’s fragile alliance with Russia and China]
Failing to act now, Ziv warned, would be a terrible mistake that Israel would come to regret.
Talk of an Israeli strike comes as Iran accelerates its nuclear program, with IAEA Director Rafael Grossi warning that a new nuclear agreement is no longer relevant. Iran’s rapid progress toward military-grade enrichment has left the global community with few options for containment.
Former Defense Minister Benny Gantz recently sounded the alarm, warning that a nuclear breakout is a realistic scenario. He urged Israel to be prepared to take strong steps, including immediate military action.
Iran’s risky position
Iran’s leaders face a difficult moment of decision. Achieving nuclear capability would serve as a powerful deterrent against external threats, but initiating a nuclear breakout carries immense risks.
Advancing toward weaponization would likely trigger arge-scale military action by Israel or the United States, or both, targeting Iran’s nuclear sites and other strategic assets.
While a single nuclear weapon could serve as a deterrent, Iran would require an arsenal of several bombs to ensure at least one gets through. However, producing multiple bombs without detection is a near-impossible task.
During the window between a nuclear breakout and the development of a reliable arsenal, Iran would be at its most vulnerable, facing a heightened risk of preemptive strikes.
This precarious situation would present extraordinary dangers for Tehran. But with its regional influence eroding and deterrence strategy crumbling, Iran’s leadership may conclude that pursuing nuclear weapons is its only viable path to restoring its strategic standing and ensuring survival.
Yet in a worst-case scenario for Tehran, a nuclear breakout could backfire catastrophically, triggering a devastating blow that gravely weakens the regime and pushes it toward collapse.
